The Three Challenges Parking Can’t Ignore

At TPN, we strongly believe that there are at least three major business challenges that, over the coming years, will dramatically impact parking operations, which will simply affect all of us.

Over the last three or four articles, we have written about at least one of these major challenges. We have also published one article that gives us a glimpse of what’s going to come. During this time, we have talked about mass transit and what impact it could have on our parking operations. We have mentioned a little bit about the horrendous cost of mass transit and seem to have trouble seeing the real value. The statistics have not changed since the mid-to-late ’60s concerning the number of people who take some form of mass transit, walk, drive, skip, versus the people who drive. In short, this means that the pressure is on us to provide parking through commercial office, retail, on-street, off-street municipal, medical, university, sports, and airports.

Just to add one more bit of information, there are approximately 278 million cars in the U.S., and their average age is 12 years. We can talk all we want about “this is how they do it in Europe,” but 278 million cars is how we do it here, with the most highly developed highway system in the world. In parking, it is our job to get the cars off the street. We need to focus on making sure we have the parking for them with a high level of service.

One of the major impacts on parking supply are the many tech companies that are misusing Professor Shoup’s book, The High Cost of Free Parking. Tech companies from the U.S. and around the world routinely misquote information from Professor Shoup and use it to present problems to potential customers. We are not saying that the tech companies are intentionally misquoting Professor Shoup, but it seems almost every month we hear some of the same statistics quoted from the book, and they are completely incorrect.

In TPN’s Podcast Season 3 Bonus Episode, TPN discusses the statistics in Professor Shoup’s publications. The goal of the podcast was to start the conversation about the positives as well as the many misused statistics in the book. As we move into Season 4, we will continue to use Professor Shoup’s publications as a point of discussion.

We at TPN Consulting believe the misunderstanding of the potential impact of mass transit, the misquoting of Professor Shoup, and the impact of the groups that are hammering city councils to reduce the requirements for parking minimums are not assisting the positive development of our cities.

Misquoting Dr. Shoup

Professor Shoup was really focused on on-street parking and how the management, or failure to manage, impacted our community. However, we see today, more than ever, how the management of municipal parking, especially on-street parking, impacts our commercial building parking. TPN’s intent is to try to tie this all together so that we have a better understanding of the parking requirements for all our parking generators and some of the coming changes to the movement of our customers.

As consultants, we feel it is our responsibility to monitor all phases of the industry and all of the challenges we face and share our research with all of you. That is the plan for the next six months, longer if necessary.

Mass Transit Misunderstanding

In August, we discussed a turning point in autonomous vehicle impact. Those of you who follow our work know that we are a strong believer in the 30-year cycle of development. We know, or have learned, that during that 30-year cycle of development, important technology or lessons are learned that have an impact that affects our parking operations.

EVs are at that point now, and we have seen a slowdown in the push for providing EV parking in our facilities. This change is simply because we are at a point where the major auto manufacturers feel better about the technology, and we as operators have a better understanding of the utilization rates in our facilities. Very soon, we will see the long-term impact of the 15-year point and will be better able to understand the impact to our parking operations.

The same is true for autonomous vehicles (AVs). We have been through all of the discussions about the impact of AV vehicles on parking, and we are now in the 10- to 15-year mid-development cycle. TPN’s August issue started the discussion concerning this period and the changing impact that will start to become apparent once this second level of autonomous technology begins to enter the market.

We would normally say the next five years, but in this case, it seems we are in a position to say in the next three years we will begin to see how this second level of AV development might begin to positively impact parking and transportation.

As a note, this month in one of the three parking-related magazines, there was a lead article written by a parking-related person in England. He stated that medical office buildings and hospitals seem to have a very highly developed parking shortage in both England and in the U.S. His basic plan was that there is just no more room at these medical facilities to build more parking, so they should develop a bicycling and walking program.

We could have a full-day program just to discuss this parking issue, but that will be later.

My short answer is that I was in the hospital last week, had many visits and doctors in medical office buildings, with a few more to come, and every day in Houston for the last four weeks the temperature has been 96 to 104 degrees. My medical office building is 10 miles away, my hospital is 6 miles, and my wife’s MOB is 14 miles. 

The solution to this growing trend across the U.S. in parking shortages at MOBs and hospitals does have many professional solutions. Biking and walking are not really at the top of the list.

He did mention that his suggestion is not really for patients but for all of the hospital staff. It is always funny to me that people who write articles like this fail to think through the impact. To complete his wonderful suggestion, in Houston and most southern cities, every hospital and medical office building will be required to build a very large locker room facility to shower hundreds of people who arrive at work at exactly the same time after riding in 90-plus-degree heat.

The three challenges are:

1. The very active activist groups

The very active, activist groups who believe building more mass transit is one solution, and the other that strongly dislike cars and parking spaces and believe we should eliminate parking minimums, create affordable housing, and strongly reduce the need for parking and cars.

This group is working very hard at spending time in front of city councils and quotes or misquotes Donald Shoup a lot. It is just not possible for us to dismiss this group, so it is necessary for us to spend time addressing their view of the parking world. What they are trying to do will impact every single one of our user groups.

2. EV and AV development

Now that we are at the midway point of EV development and nearing the same point with AV development, we will focus on the impact of each so we can help our clients prepare for these changes that will impact us all.

3. Changes in demand

Finally, the next impact or challenge will be the many impacts on demand and learning how to identify them and plan for the five- and then the 10-year impact. Hiring and training our next generation of parking and transportation professionals starts now.

And that is where we will focus our attention.

Over the next several months, TPN will continue to look at these three challenges from the perspective of what is actually happening in parking operations, not simply what people predict will happen. The industry is changing, and our responsibility is to understand those changes, challenge the assumptions that do not make sense, and help our clients prepare for what is coming.

There is a lot to talk about, and we are just getting started. We're going to watch what actually happens, question assumptions, and help operators prepare.