EV charging. Self-driving cars. Micro mobility. E-commerce transactions. Communications. Curb management. LPR. Ticketless systems. Artificial Intelligence. And now, of course, the dramatic “reinvention” of customer service. Every one of these has entered our industry in the past 15 years. And every one of them is still a work in progress. Here’s what most people forget: every so-called revolution follows the same bell curve. First comes development, with lots of ideas, prototypes, and enthusiasm. Then, early adopters jump in. Then comes the over-promising stage, where headlines run ahead of reality. After that? The inevitable reality check. Refinement follows. Infrastructure gets built. And only then (usually much later than anyone predicted) do we reach broad acceptance. Historically, that entire cycle takes about 30 years. 

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About 15 years ago, TPN spent considerable time studying this development curve. We believed the cycle might shorten, maybe to 20 years, maybe even 15, as technology was accelerating. Add to that that capital was flowing and disruption was fashionable. At that time, we felt the pressure to get this prediction right. We were advising clients on capital projects, revenue projections, and operational models, and these decisions would impact parking facilities for decades. 

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But here we are. The 30-year rule is holding up pretty well. 

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EV Charging: Year 15 and… Stalled 

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I bought an EV in 2013. Not because I wanted to be trendy, but because I believed we needed to understand this technology firsthand. EV charging has now been in the conversation for roughly 15 years. And we are stalled. There are many reasons for that, enough for a 30-page white paper, but here’s the short version: we are still in the technology development phase. We do not yet have a product that meets mass-market expectations, and infrastructure is nowhere near complete. 

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Let’s talk numbers. There are approximately 280 million cars on the road in the U.S. We sell about 16 million new cars each year. Only 7% to 9% of those are EVs (roughly 1.3 million vehicles annually). The average car on the road is 12 years old. Do the math. Even if EV adoption continues steadily, the impact on parking facilities over the next 20 years will be gradual, not revolutionary. There is likely another five years before we see the next meaningful movement, followed by at least ten years of infrastructure buildout. That looks suspiciously like… 30 years. 

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Autonomous Vehicles: The Garage That Wasn’t Supposed to Exist 

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Self-driving cars follow a very similar pattern. Over ten years ago, a speaker at an Urban Land conference confidently told a standing-room-only crowd that we would stop building garages because autonomous vehicles would drop us off and drive home. Five years ago, the Wall Street Journal quoted industry “experts” predicting garages would be unnecessary within a decade. One of our medical clients tried to finance a 1,500-space garage and was told by a bank that they wouldn’t fund it because of that article. We helped correct that misinformation. 

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We are now more than ten years into AV development. At some point in the next decade, we will see Level 5 vehicles enter the market — purchased by early adopters who can afford them. But let’s return to the math: 280 million vehicles on the road, 12-year average vehicle age, 7%–9% EV sales today, Level 5 AVs will be among the most expensive vehicles available. If AVs capture even 5% of annual new car sales, it will take decades before they materially change the composition of vehicles on the road. In 20 years, their impact on parking demand will still be limited. And the arguments used to claim garages would become obsolete? They were simply incorrect. 

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Micro Mobility, E-Commerce, and Curb Management 

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Micro mobility is in every transportation discussion today (we have also recently heard the term “small wheels” to describe transportation machines like scooters, bikes, and skates). Yet we now have measurable data showing that building millions of dollars' worth of bike lanes has not meaningfully reduced the number of cars on the road.  

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E-commerce in parking is evolving. SpotHero and ParkMe began the movement about 15 years ago. More recently, Metropolis has accelerated the conversation, and Uber’s acquisition of SpotHero signals continued change.  

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Curb management is another popular topic. Much of the noise is driven by overseas tech investors selling software and camera systems. What we have not seen is a comprehensive plan that addresses the actual curb challenges cities face. 

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But again, please catch on to the pattern. We are mid-curve in these conversations. Not at the end. 

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AI: The Next Tool, Not the Final Answer 

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Technology is not a strategy, it is a tool. Artificial Intelligence may become the most powerful tool of them all. We have attended the presentations. We have read the articles. We see the excitement. What we are seeing today is the very beginning. Hundreds of data centers are either under construction or in planning just to support the next phase of AI development. We are not even at the 10-year mark of its integration into our industry, much less the 30-year mark where true maturity happens. AI will enhance many of the paradigm shifts mentioned above, but it will definitely not skip the development curve because nothing skips the development curve. 

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The Real Challenge 

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When you step back and look at everything our industry is navigating  (EVs, AVs, micro mobility, e-commerce, curb management, AI, etc.), it can feel overwhelming, and the temptation is to overreact. It seems appropriate to assume every new headline signals immediate disruption and we are inclined to stop building, to stop investing, to stop thinking and panic. But, history tells us otherwise. At TPN, we are working hard to stay grounded in development reality, not hype cycles. Our job is to understand where each of these technologies truly sits on the curve and help our clients make decisions that will still make sense 20 years from now. 

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Because the bell curve doesn’t care about headlines. 

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And neither should we.