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A Prediction of the Impact of Autonomous Cars in Our Industry

Clyde Wilson

February 2025

Our whole world is in a state of transformation. Ben Rector sings on the radio, “Healthy things grow, and growing things change...” Everything necessary to each of us is at some level of change.  That was always true, but today, those changes seem more impactful and come faster, constantly screaming at us from our newsfeeds or social media pages.  I think a lot about Moore’s law; it was phrased in 1965 to describe the doubling of transistors on a microchip and succinctly described the breakneck speed at which that technology could improve. It says “The principle that the speed and capability of computers can be expected to double every two years, as a result of increases in the number of transistors a microchip can contain.”  As expected, by 2016, we had started to believe that Moore’s law was obsolete because change was happening in a shorter period than every two years – technological change was almost at a pace that was not measurable.   

 

AI Development will Drive Autonomous Vehicles’ Production 

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AI does not yet have a Moore’s law type identifier, but – by the look of the CES (Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas) entries - it will soon take a giant leap forward, impacting many parts of our daily lives, including cars and transportation. But how? That’s really what we want to know. The automobile and transportation system has built-in barriers that slow development. Technology development is much less expensive than brick-and-mortar development. It is far cheaper and easier to put out a new app than it is to change the layout of a roadway or the location of a parking garage. Today, a change can happen and can be transmitted around the world using social media to spread their wild beliefs about how it will be used and impact our daily lives, but it remains quite a challenge to adjust how people commute to work. While the technology available should be embraced and used to enhance human existence, it is challenging to find ways for the parking industry to benefit from its power and improvements.  

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As we try to integrate the advancements of AI and the business of locomotion, we have made some hasty and uneducated assumptions. My absolute best story that exemplifies this was about 15 years ago when my longtime good friend from the real estate industry was at a national real estate convention.  He called me to say that there was a presentation about to start titled “Autonomous Cars Are Here and What to Do with Your Parking Garage.”  My friend summarized the well-attended presentation's content: we should no longer build new parking garages; they could be transformed into retail or apartments; roofs should be outdoor gardens or restaurant seating on the lower floors because autonomous cars will never need to park in town!  Right there, I realized that I should pay more attention to the transportation development process and offer my consulting services to the real estate market too. 

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AVs are Coming Slowly and Will Need Parking Facilities 

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The presentation presented two grossly erroneous facts: first, it said AVs are imminent, and second, they will remove the need for parking facilities. Transportation development happens slower than other industries.  Trains, buses, and cars are expensive purchases, with cars being the least of the three mentioned above but the most important in our daily lives.  When an automobile development team realizes they have a transformation that will impact the automobile, they must undergo a process of years of testing.  If they put this new transformation into the family car, they must know that manufacturers can support it, and the customer will see value in it for 20-plus years.  There are 270 million registered cars in the US, and the average car on the road is 12 years old.  We sell approximately 15,500,000 new vehicles a year, and traditionally, only about 3 to 4% of those cars are luxury cars (that number has increased considerably in the last few years, but it will settle back down).  Before an auto manufacturer can make a change, they have to prove the change can have value for 20 years and can be supported. Imagine the challenges of making the future of automobile decisions in an age of tremendous technological change and Super AI impact. Between the rigors of the testing and manufacturing and the rate at which Americans purchase new luxury cars, it will take several decades for AVs to represent a significant portion of cars on the road and even longer for them to completely replace the current models, no matter what realtors say. 

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Let’s analyze the second common misconception that AVs will remove the need for parking facilities. We have heard that owners of fully autonomous cars will ride to work and get out at their destination, and the car will go home to wait for the summons to return to the office for pick up.  However, downtown buildings were not designed to accommodate 1,000 cars lined up in front of the building, waiting for their passengers to get out or get in while managing all the phones and coffee cups that makeup work life. That activity would put thousands of cars in line on the downtown streets waiting to drop off or pick up their passengers. What do we do with the 10,000 cars in downtown Houston circling, waiting for us to exit the elevator? We could get a call right before leaving the office, run into someone in the lobby, and decide to run to the snack bar to get a drink for the ride home and cause the most incredible traffic jam in the Western Hemisphere. Also, what happens after the passengers are dropped off? If an AV doesn’t need a parking facility, will it return home and wait to be summoned later in the day?  Think about it!  We barely have the roadway for the one-direction morning and evening traffic and certainly do not have the roadway to double traffic by putting cars back on the road to return home. AVs will enter the transportation force slowly, as all other new vehicle types do. They will still need parking facilities to enable all vehicles to transport efficiently and effectively. 

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Let’s categorize AVs into two oversimplified categories that will meet our needs. Category One is cars that may be self-driving but need varying levels of driver support.  That means there must be a licensed driver in the driver's seat ready to take control, so is only slightly different from today's typical car and has no real impact on our industry.  Even the so-called fully autonomous car currently used by Waymo in some cities is not truly autonomous. These AVs were designed for taxi or Uber replacements but not for replacing the private automobile.  Category Two is the fully autonomous car that will change our relationship with our car and the future of transportation.  

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In researching this article, finding anyone ready to say that the fully autonomous vehicle that can replace the family car will be ready in the next 5 to 10 years was difficult. We are still more than 5 years away, but some changes will soon enhance the leap forward. In the next few years, we will see a jump to SuperAI, which will satisfy the many demands of the fully autonomous car into a form of transportation we cannot quite imagine today and significantly reduce the costs of the technology. Keep in mind that, with the acceleration of the development process, the fully autonomous cars that are being tested today look and act nothing like the fully autonomous cars of 10 years from now. The development renaissance created by Super AI will give us the answer that will solve the next major change in the transportation challenge.  

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AVs Will Change Our Industry in Surprising Ways 

I was encouraged to write this month's ParkPulse article about Autonomous Vehicles, where they are in the development cycle, and where they are headed because there are a lot of misconceptions out there, causing uneducated decisions and irrational stress. The predictions seem to fall into two extreme categories: AVs are about to change transportation and end parking, or they are just a fancy futuristic dream but nothing that will impact “Our Industry.” The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle and will come onto the scene at a welcomed pace and with much dignity. 

 

As we look at this new transportation model, we need to get off the surface energy and get down to the details.  We will cover more of these details in next month's ParkPulse article.  To tease you, let me end with this surprising statement: the completed development of the fully autonomous vehicle will increase the number of cars and miles driven on the road.  Additionally, by the time we get to that 50-year development mark, the roadways will be changing to something that functions totally differently from today's and bring forth the next highway of transformation. The CES show has TPN excited about what is coming! 

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